Three Major Figures on Wednesday Will Determine Market Sentiment Right Before Jackson Hole

On Wednesday, August 26, three major US statistical releases will roll out at 8:30 AM New York time (16:30 Gulf time). These represent the final macroeconomic data stops right before the Jackson Hole conference, giving them exceptional weight in shaping market expectations for Friday.

Leading the releases is the second estimate for US Q2 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which came in at an annualized +1.5% in its preliminary reading. Investors will gauge any revision to this figure as an indicator of US economic growth momentum. Simultaneously, the July Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) price index will be released with a consensus forecast of +0.3% monthly and 3.29% annually, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.

July Durable Goods Orders complete the trio, reflecting business intentions to invest and expand productive capacity, and serving as an early indicator of business investment trends. Jackson Hole participants will analyze the sum of these readings to shape their tone on the future of monetary policy.

If the three readings come in higher than expected, it will strengthen the argument for keeping interest rates higher for longer, translating into further pressure on both stocks and bonds. Conversely, a downside surprise could be the shot in the arm markets need to regain momentum before the weekend.

What Do These Terms Mean?

Core PCE Index: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, measuring price changes in items consumed by Americans, excluding food and energy due to their high volatility. A higher reading implies stronger pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.

Annualized GDP: A quarterly economic growth rate converted into a hypothetical annual rate for easier comparison—essentially assuming that this quarterly growth pace would persist throughout the full year.

Durable Goods: Products expected to last three years or more, such as aircraft, industrial machinery, and computers. Orders for these goods act as an indicator of near-term corporate investment plans.