CIBC Lowers Gold Forecast to $4,500 and 2028 Target to $5,500 from $6,000

CIBC lowered its fourth-quarter 2026 gold price forecast to $4,500 per ounce from $6,500, and reduced its 2027 average to $5,200 from $6,500, according to a report published by the "Investing Live" website.

The institution reduced its 2028 gold price estimate to $5,500 per ounce from $6,000, meaning it sees near-term pressure while maintaining a positive outlook over the longer term.

The new scenario assumes ETF demand of 1,000 tonnes in 2027 and 2028, compared to 35 tonnes in 2026, alongside annual central bank purchases of 1,000 tonnes.

These assumptions reflect the importance of fund flows and official purchases in determining gold's trajectory, as together they represent a major part of global demand for the metal.

What do these terms mean?

Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF): An investment fund traded on the stock exchange like stocks that tracks the price of a commodity such as gold.

Central Banks: Official monetary institutions that manage reserves and purchase gold as part of their diversification policies.

Gold Demand: The total amount of the metal purchased by investors, funds, central banks, and manufacturers.

Price Forecasts: Analysts' estimates of an asset's price in an upcoming period based on specific data and assumptions.