Trump Closes the Door on Diplomacy with Iran as Brent Holds at $91

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on August 18 that "there are no ongoing or scheduled talks or discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran," closing the door to any diplomatic channel after the expiration of the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding deadline.

Brent crude held at $91.75 per barrel, recording a 37% year-on-year increase, amid escalating concerns over continued geopolitical pressure on oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Data from the Polymarket platform revealed that the probability of reaching a nuclear deal by the end of the year does not exceed 23%, making oil a key driver of global market volatility in the coming period.

This escalation represents an extension of a long trajectory of tensions, and reinforces what markets now call the "geopolitical risk premium" — a permanent extra price in oil as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat.

What do these terms mean?

Geopolitical Risk Premium: The additional portion of the oil price resulting from political and military tensions, such as the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz — if concerns were to disappear, the price would drop to its fundamental value.

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): A document setting out a temporary framework for negotiations between two parties without being legally binding, expiring at the end of its term if an official agreement is not reached.

Polymarket: A predictive betting platform that aggregates traders' views on the probability of future events, used as an informal indicator of market expectations.