Fitch Affirms Egypt's Rating at 'B' and Expects Inflation to Drop Below 10% in 2027/28

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt's long-term credit rating at 'B' with a Stable Outlook, in a review reported by Egypt Today, keeping the assessment unchanged in the high-risk category.

The agency projects the Egyptian economy to grow by 4.7% in FY 2026/2027 following 5.1% in 2025/2026, with average inflation at 12.3% before dropping below 10% in FY 2027/2028.

Fitch estimates a decline in government debt of about 8 percentage points to reach 72% of GDP by the end of 2027/2028, expecting the IMF's Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility programs to conclude in November 2026.

The rating determines Egypt's borrowing costs in international markets, making it closely watched by investors and debt funds. The review follows data showing the Egyptian economy grew by 5.1% in the ended fiscal year, signaling that the rating affirmation points to a gradual improvement in the sovereign risk profile, while debt and inflation remain key pressure factors.

What Do These Terms Mean?

Credit Rating: An assessment issued by specialized agencies evaluating the ability of a country or company to repay its debt on time, determining borrowing costs in international markets.

Outlook: The likely direction of the rating over the coming year, which can be Stable, Negative, or Positive; "Stable" indicates the rating is likely to remain unchanged.

Extended Fund Facility: A long-term financing program provided by the IMF to a country implementing economic reforms, disbursed in tranches tied to periodic reviews.

Government Debt-to-GDP: The ratio of government debt to the size of the economy, used to measure a country's debt sustainability; a lower ratio indicates a wider margin.