Wamda: MENA Deal Count Falls 28% as Geopolitical Risk Drives the Decline

Wamda has attributed the 28% year-on-year decline in the number of funding deals across the Middle East and North Africa during the first half of 2026 to heightened geopolitical risk, rather than to weaker company performance or a shortage of liquidity.

Total regional funding fell 18% to $1.7 billion over the same period, meaning the contraction in deal count outpaced the decline in value, which indicates that the remaining capital is concentrating in fewer and larger transactions.

By contrast, the UAE's share rose to roughly 70% of regional funding in the first half, at $1.2 billion across 83 deals and annual growth of more than 125%, as investors move toward markets whose regulatory environment is considered more stable.

Consequently, regulatory stability has become an influential factor in how risk is priced across the region, since it feeds into funding terms and into the distribution of capital between regional capitals.

Key terms explained:

Geopolitical risk: The likelihood of political or security tension affecting investment and trade in a given region.

Deal count: The total number of funding rounds completed, measured separately from value because a single large deal can lift the total.

Risk premium: The additional return an investor demands for entering a riskier market or asset.

Regulatory environment: The laws and procedures governing how companies are established, operate and how investors are protected.

Risk pricing: Factoring the degree of risk into deal terms, whether in valuation or contractual clauses.