Middle East Hotel Revenues Set to Rise Nearly 70% in Q4 as Peak Season Approaches

Analysts expect revenue per available room (RevPAR) at Middle East hotels to rise by nearly 70% in the fourth quarter compared to the second quarter as the peak season approaches, after Marriott recorded a 43% drop in this metric in the region during Q2, according to Bloomberg as cited by Investing.com.

Hilton forecasted RevPAR growth in the region at around 65%, a projection similar in trend to analysts' estimates, albeit slightly different in percentage. However, STR expects the combined metric for Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, and Riyadh to remain about 30% below Q4 2025 levels, meaning the expected recovery begins from a low base.

The expected improvement is attributed to easing war-related disruptions, alongside growth in domestic and intra-regional travel, two factors supporting hotel accommodation demand in key Gulf markets that increasingly rely on resident visitors and guests from neighboring countries.

This contrast between the expected surge compared to Q2 and the anticipated decline compared to Q4 of last year indicates that the recovery remains partial, and that regional hotels need a strong peak season to narrow the gap with last year's levels, placing operators facing a true test in the coming months regarding both pricing and occupancy rates.

What do these terms mean?

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR): A metric for hotel performance calculated by multiplying the average daily rate by the occupancy rate, allowing comparison of hotels regardless of size. Quarter: A three-month period into which the fiscal year is divided. Peak Season: The period during which demand for travel and accommodation reaches its highest levels.