Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold's Fair Value for Year-End 2026 to $4,650

Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas lowered the fair value of gold for year-end 2026 to $4,650 per ounce, down from $4,900, according to Investing Live on September 23. She maintained the target of $5,400 per ounce for year-end 2027.

The analyst stated that US interest rate hikes will slow gold's ascent but will not halt its trajectory, and that the bank still expects three rate cuts between September 2027 and March 2028. This means the adjustment pertains to timing and expected levels, rather than the general direction of estimates.

Central bank purchases represent the most prominent factor in these estimates, with Goldman Sachs estimating buying at a rate of nearly 90 tons per month, compared to an average of about 17 tons per month prior to 2022. This difference signifies that official demand has shifted from the market's fringe to a fundamental pillar supporting prices.

Investors in the region follow these estimates because they determine institutional demand, which mitigates the impact of automated sell-off waves in global markets. The outlook remains tied to the trajectory of US interest rates and the pace of central bank purchases in the coming months—the two factors that led estimates to adjust and then stabilize.

What do these terms mean?

Fair Value: An estimate of an asset's price based on fundamental factors rather than its current market price. Central Banks: Institutions that issue currency and manage a nation's reserves. Interest Rate Cut: A reduction in official interest rates aimed at stimulating the economy, which typically supports gold prices. Target Price: The price an analyst expects an asset to reach by a specific date.