Windward: Q3 2026 One of the Most Dangerous Quarters for Global Shipping

Windward's Maritime Risk Report for Q3 2026 recorded about 45 attacks on vessels in the Gulf, compared to 25 in the second quarter and 22 in February and March, one of the most dangerous quarters in recent history.

Tankers were targeted in 87% of these attacks, compared to 28% in the second quarter, with 93% occurring within the Strait of Hormuz. Monitored maritime trade voyages rose from about 16 daily in late July to around 31 in the last week of September, but remain far below the pre-war average of 138 voyages, as convoys resort to disabling tracking systems.

The report recorded 12 conflict-related oil spill incidents in Q3, compared to 9 in Q2, with the slick from the supertanker 'Caroline Bezengi' reaching approximately 400 square kilometers, according to Omani authorities. In the Black Sea, around 86 merchant ships were attacked, compared to 23 in the first half of the year, killing four seafarers.

Fake-flagged vessels listed with the International Maritime Organization reached 613 ships, a 39% increase since January, representing 24.8 million gross tons, with over 90% built before 2010. Russia topped the dark fleet list with 223 tankers, 84 of which changed their flag during the third quarter alone.

What do these terms mean?

Fake Flags: Registering a vessel under the flag of a country whose nationality it does not hold and which does not actually oversee its safety, in order to conceal the true owner.

Dark Fleet: A group of vessels operating outside standard regulatory frameworks, relying on fraudulent documentation and intermittent signal tracking to transport restricted cargo.

International Maritime Organization: A specialized agency of the United Nations that sets standards for the safety and security of global shipping, and registers vessels and their incidents.