Gold Forecast: Range Between $3,980 and $4,330, with $4,245 as the Decisive Point
An analysis sets a weekly range for gold between $3,980 and $4,330 around a pivot point near $4,245, focusing on deferred interest rate hikes and October 14 inflation data.
A weekly analysis expects gold to trade in a range between $3,980 and $4,330 per ounce over the coming week, considering the $4,245 level as the pivot point where key technical indicators converge to determine the direction.
This point coincides with the convergence between the 75-day moving average at $4,243.64 and the first weekly pivot level at $4,244.83, a convergence that gives the level additional technical significance. A closing above it indicates upside potential, while remaining below it means continued downward pressure.
The analysis attributes gold's drop below $4,100 and reaching a low of $4,066 on October 7 to the postponement of the US interest rate hike, not its cancellation, with about a 20% probability of a rate hike in October versus about 80% in December, while the real yield remains near 2.9%.
The September inflation report scheduled for October 14 is identified as the key deciding factor that will determine the direction within the range, making the coming week crucial for gold's short-term trajectory, directly affecting traders and investors in the Arab region.
What Do These Terms Mean?
Moving Average: The average closing price over a specified number of days, used to identify the general trend and smooth out daily volatility noise.
Pivot Point: A price calculated from the previous period's high, low, and close, used as a balance point to determine the price's bullish or bearish bias.
Real Yield: The nominal bond yield after deducting the inflation rate; the higher it rises, the greater the pressure on gold, which yields no return.
Weekly Newsletter
Read between the lines before everyone else. Decode the most important economic, tech, and decision-maker movements in the region.. in 5 minutes every Saturday.
