Dubai Home Sales Drop 47% to $19.7 Billion in Q3

Dubai home sales reached AED 72.6 billion (approximately $19.7 billion) during the third quarter of 2026, down 47% in value and 38% in volume year-on-year, according to a report by real estate consultancy Cavendish Maxwell cited by The National newspaper. The number of transactions stood at around 34,000 in the three months ending in September.

The firm attributed part of the decline to "delays in registering real estate sales," alongside buyers pulling back following heightened regional uncertainty amid the war on Iran that began in late February. Ronan Arthur, director and head of residential valuation at the firm, said activity had become "more conservative" and that "buyers grew more cautious in the weeks and months following the onset of the conflict."

Off-plan sales accounted for 65% of sales value and 72% of transaction volume during the quarter. On a nine-month basis in 2026, volumes fell 23% year-on-year to 112,580 transactions, and values dropped 27% to AED 292 billion, indicating that the slowdown's impact was not limited to the third quarter.

In a separate analysis based on Dubai Land Department data, S&P Global said sales averaged 12,644 transactions per month between March and September, down roughly 26% from an average of 17,198 transactions per month in January and February. Prices declined between 5% and 15% from the end of 2025 through September, with expectations of a gradual correction rather than a sharp crash, noting that apartment prices are likely to fall faster than villas due to supply volume.

What do these terms mean?

Off-plan sales: The sale of real estate units that have not yet been built or are still under construction, where the buyer purchases the unit before project completion, often at a price lower than the ready market.

Price correction: An orderly, gradual decline in prices following a period of growth, differing from a sharp crash in both pace and scope.

Sales registration: Officially entering a sales transaction into the Land Department's records, the timing of which affects the transaction's classification within a specific financial quarter.