Brent Between $75 and $90 Depending on Strait of Hormuz Tensions, Analysts Say

Energy market analysts expect Brent crude prices to settle in the $75–$78 per barrel range if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz subside, whereas the price could jump toward $90 if the crisis escalates.

Analysts believe that markets are currently pricing in an additional geopolitical risk premium of about $8–$10 per barrel amid ongoing tensions, a premium that could evaporate quickly with any diplomatic de-escalation.

This analysis relies on models that take into account the spare production capacity of OPEC+ producers, global inventory levels, and demand forecasts in Asia and Europe during the fourth quarter of 2026.

Experts point out that oil markets respond quickly to political events, and that current volatility shows the main source of risk has become political rather than economic, as the diplomatic resolution to the Hormuz crisis remains the most critical variable watched by the markets.

What Do These Terms Mean?

Geopolitical Risk Premium: The additional difference in oil price resulting from political and military tensions, which typically disappears once the crisis ends or subsides.

Spare Production Capacity: The amount that OPEC+ producers can quickly raise in the event of supply disruptions, serving as the main safety valve in the oil market.

Price Range: The expected lower and upper limits for a commodity's price over a specific period, based on different scenarios of market-influencing factors.