CPM: Gold Rose 57% Since August 2025, Then Lost a Quarter of Its Value

CPM Group said gold rose 57% from a settlement price of $3,390.20 an ounce on August 25, 2025, the first trading day after the Fed's Jackson Hole conference in Kansas City, to a record settlement of $5,318.40 on January 29, 2026. The metal then fell 25% to a low of $3,992.10 on July 16, before recovering part of the loss and trading near $4,200 through October 19.

Silver moved from a low of $36.71 on July 31, 2025 to a peak of $115.50 on January 26 on a COMEX settlement basis, then fell to $56.19 on July 16. CPM said the sharp rise and fall in both metals reflect large market moves over the past two years.

The group noted that the strongest wave began after the August 2025 Jackson Hole conference and continued until January 2026, followed by a partial decline through July, before another rally in August 2026, a month that is usually quiet in precious metals markets, and then a new partial pullback.

By November 5, 2026, spot gold was trading near $4,119.50 an ounce, after recovering from the sharp October correction, as the market awaits U.S. jobs data and the Fed's next decision. CPM provides its analysis and recommendations within a monthly subscription service for precious metals.

What do these terms mean?

Settlement price: The official price set at the end of a trading session, used to settle contracts and positions.

Jackson Hole conference: An annual economic meeting organized by the Kansas City Fed, where markets await central bankers' remarks.

Price correction: A temporary decline in an asset's price after a rally, usually no less than 10%.

COMEX settlement: The mechanism that sets the final price of metals contracts on the COMEX exchange at the close of trading.