Goldman Raises Brent Forecast to $90 and OPEC Cuts Demand Growth

Oil prices jumped nearly 2% in trading, with Brent crude reaching $106.80 a barrel, up $2.09 or 2.00%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $93.78, up $1.93 or 2.10%, according to price data reported by the "Oilprice" website. The rise came following attacks targeting sites in Saudi Arabia and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

This surge comes at a time of growing focus on supply and demand forecasts, as the attacks reignited concerns over supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage through which a significant portion of global oil exports passes.

Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel from $85, an estimate that puts the geopolitical risk premium at slightly over $20 a barrel, reflecting tighter market calculations regarding threats to near-term supplies.

For his part, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais reduced the 2026 demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day, compared to a forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, signaling a slowdown in the pace of global consumption despite current price levels.

What do these terms mean?

Brent Crude: One of the main global benchmarks for pricing crude oil, upon which the prices of many other crudes in energy markets are built.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI): The US benchmark crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, serving as an important reference for pricing oil in North America.

Geopolitical Risk Premium: The added portion of the oil price that buyers pay to account for potential supply disruptions due to security and political tensions.

OPEC: An organization comprising major oil-producing countries that agree on production policies to influence markets and crude prices.