Bank of America: Gold Won't Hold Above $4,000, Average $4,813 in 2027

Commodity analysts at Bank of America said in a new note that gold will not be able to hold above $4,000 per ounce over the next three months, reconfirming a quarterly estimate previously announced by the bank. The note adds a full-year average for 2027 of $4,813 and identifies two factors that could reverse the downward trend: a shift by the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish policy or the return of currency debasement fears.

The bank assumes an average price of $4,000 per ounce during the fourth quarter of the current year, with a potential drop to a trough near $3,750, before the average rises to $4,813 in 2027 according to analysts' estimates.

Analysts attributed the forecast to persistent inflation, rising bond yields, a strong dollar, and slowing purchases by central banks, China, and India, warning that record gold ETF inflows could reverse in the coming period.

Kitco noted that the article reported the spot gold price at $4,168.90, down 0.59% on the day, reflecting ongoing pricing pressure on the metal despite support from institutional demand and lingering regional geopolitical concerns.

What Do These Terms Mean?

Bank of America: One of the largest U.S. investment banks, viewed by markets as a reference point for asset and commodity price forecasts.

Quarterly Average Price: An estimated average price expected by analysts for an entire quarter, used as a baseline for comparison rather than a guarantee of the actual price.

Inflation: A continuous rise in the general price level of goods and services, affecting currency value and demand for safe-haven assets.

Central Bank Purchases: The official buying of gold as part of national reserves, whose continuation provides long-term support for the metal's market.