LBMA Lowers Gold Forecast to $4,500 by End of 2026 and Sees $5,100 as Bullish Scenario

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) lowered its gold price forecast for the end of 2026, setting the baseline level at $4,500 per ounce, in a revision reflecting a shift in expectations following the strong rally experienced by the metal at the beginning of the year.

The association noted that a bullish scenario could push gold prices toward $5,100 per ounce if inflation declines at a faster pace than expected and major central banks ease their contractionary monetary policies.

In contrast, the LBMA set the bearish scenario around $3,900 per ounce if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates again or structural demand from central banks unexpectedly declines.

These forecasts from the LBMA come as the main reference for global gold pricing, as the association publishes daily benchmark prices relied upon by banks and financial institutions around the world, making it the most important reference when shaping global gold market expectations.

What do these terms mean?

LBMA: London Bullion Market Association, the global benchmark for pricing gold and silver and setting the daily prices used by banks and financial institutions worldwide.

Ounce: A unit of weight used in international gold pricing, equivalent to about 31.1 grams, and the fundamental unit upon which gold prices in global markets are built.

Bullish Scenario: A forecast assuming the realization of the best possible conditions, such as declining inflation and lower interest rates, which could push prices to levels higher than the base forecast.