UBS and Morgan Stanley Target $5,000 and $5,200 Gold by End of Third Quarter

Swiss bank UBS targets gold prices reaching $5,000 per ounce by the end of the third quarter of 2026, while Morgan Stanley sees achieving the $5,200 level as contingent on a sustained recovery in demand for gold ETFs.

This divergence in forecasts between the two major banks reflects the extent of uncertainty surrounding the market, as the bullish scenario is closely linked to Western investors redirecting their flows back into gold.

Western gold ETFs experienced net outflows during the second quarter, making the realization of the $5,200 target conditional upon a reversal of this trend and a tangible, sustained return of buying flows.

Investors maintain their structural optimism regarding gold based on structural demand from central banks and geopolitical tensions; however, reaching new record levels remains dependent on regaining the momentum of Western demand through exchange-traded funds.

What Do These Terms Mean?

Price Target: The forecast set by investment bank analysts for an asset's price over a specific timeframe, based on analytical models that take into account economic and market factors.

Gold ETFs: Investment funds that track the price of gold and trade on stock exchanges; their flows serve as a primary indicator of Western investors' appetite for gold as an investment asset.

Structural Demand: Continuous demand for gold driven by permanent structural factors, such as central bank purchases and Asian demand, independent of short-term fluctuations in investment sentiment.