Ukraine May Delay Export of 20 Million Tons of Grain as Odesa Ports Capacity Declines
An official at Ukrainian Railways stated that alternative routes carry 24 to 30 million tons of grain annually, putting nearly 20 million tons at risk of being postponed to next year.
Valerii Tkachev, Deputy Director of the Commercial Department at Ukrainian Railways, stated that the total capacity of alternative routes for exporting grain ranges from 2 to 2.5 million tons per month, equivalent to 24 to 30 million tons annually.
Speaking at an international conference, Tkachev explained that Ukraine transported 18.8 million tons of grain for export by rail over nine months. However, he warned that operational constraints on Greater Odesa ports might prevent farmers from exporting all planned volumes, with total exports this year estimated at around 50 million tons, meaning nearly 20 million tons could be carried over to next year.
Railways can transport up to 1.1 million tons per month to western border crossings and 500,000 tons to Danube ports, while road transport can add about 500,000 tons. Tkachev noted that authorities are seeking ways to increase the capacity of existing routes, adding that a meeting was recently held regarding exports through Hungary, with new permits expected to be issued soon.
Reuters reported that the Ukrainian Farmers Union expects corn exports of 18 to 19 million tons in the 2026/2027 season, down from at least 22 million tons in the previous season. Maritime logistics constraints have also impacted iron ore exports, as alternative routes via Constanta in Romania, or Gdansk and Gdynia in Poland, may not be economically viable, given that ore prices range between $95 and $103 per ton and additional transport costs eliminate profit margins. Rail exports of metal products amount to 7 to 8 million tons, with fewer logistical constraints, but the sector faces competition and the effects of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
What Do These Terms Mean?
Greater Odesa Ports: A group of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, most notably Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny, used for exporting grain and metals.
Danube Ports: Ukrainian river ports on the Danube River, such as Izmail and Reni, serving as alternatives to seaports when disrupted.
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: A charge imposed by EU countries on imports of certain carbon-intensive goods to protect domestic industries from unequal competition.
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